论文标题
使用简单的流行病学模型对COVID-19大流行的全球分析
Global analysis of the COVID-19 pandemic using simple epidemiological models
论文作者
论文摘要
这项工作已使用了几种分析模型来描述冠状病毒引起的死亡病例的演变（Covid-19）。死亡或“ D”模型是SIR（易感感染的）模型的简化版本，该模型随着时间的流逝没有恢复，并且允许通过分析求解传输动力学方程。可以扩展D模型以描述感染的各种重点，这可能解释了原始大流行（D1），锁定（D2）和其他影响（DN）。在几个国家（中国，西班牙，意大利，法国，英国，伊朗，美国和德国）中，Covid-19的大流行的演变表明，与D模型趋势相似的行为，其特征是死亡案例的迅速增加，其特征是缓慢下降，受到封锁效应的高端和效率的影响。这些结果与使用具有参数化解决方案的扩展SIR模型和更复杂的蒙特卡洛网格模拟相一致，该模型具有更精确的计算，该模型预测了相似的趋势并指示大流行与通用参数的共同演变。
Several analytical models have been used in this work to describe the evolution of death cases arising from coronavirus (COVID-19). The Death or `D' model is a simplified version of the SIR (susceptible-infected-recovered) model, which assumes no recovery over time, and allows for the transmission-dynamics equations to be solved analytically. The D-model can be extended to describe various focuses of infection, which may account for the original pandemic (D1), the lockdown (D2) and other effects (Dn). The evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic in several countries (China, Spain, Italy, France, UK, Iran, USA and Germany) shows a similar behavior in concord with the D-model trend, characterized by a rapid increase of death cases followed by a slow decline, which are affected by the earliness and efficiency of the lockdown effect. These results are in agreement with more accurate calculations using the extended SIR model with a parametrized solution and more sophisticated Monte Carlo grid simulations, which predict similar trends and indicate a common evolution of the pandemic with universal parameters.
