论文标题
印度的增长预测2020-21
India Growth Forecast for 2020-21
论文作者
论文摘要
Covid-19对全球经济和印度经济造成了严重的抑郁。国际货币基金组织预计印度为1.9％。但是，我们认为，由于锁定的延长，第一季度的输出几乎被删除了。情况可能会在第二季度上升。然而，由于需求和供应限制，供应链中的投入限制和破坏，除了农业外，没有其他部门能够在2020 - 21年实现全部生产能力。功耗，GST收集，核心部门收缩的信号暗示了2020 - 21年总产量产量的低迷。我们通过对不同部门的容量利用以及使用2019 - 20年季度数据的某些假设来得出2020-21的季度GVA。在两种情况下，我们提供了2020-21的总价值估算的季度。我们还估计，根据某些假设，2019 - 20年的第四季度产出。我们估计
COVID-19 has put a severe dent on the global economy and Indian Economy. International Monetary Fund has projected 1.9 percent for India. However, we believe that due to extended lockdown, the output in the first quarter is almost wiped out. The situation may improve in the second quarter onwards. Nevertheless, due to demand and supply constraints, input constraints and disruption in the supply chain, except agriculture, no other sector would be able to achieve full capacity of production in 2020-21. The signals from power consumption, GST collection, contraction in the core sectors hint towards a slump in the total output production in 2020-21. We derive the quarterly GVA for 2020-21 by using certain assumptions on the capacity utilisation in different sectors and using the quarterly data of 2019-20. We provide quarterly estimates of Gross Value Addition for 2020-21 under two scenarios. We have also estimated the fourth quarter output for 2019-20 under certain assumptions. We estimate
