论文标题

用于理解,预测和管理冠状病毒疾病COVID-19的跨种群网络模型19

Metapopulation network models for understanding, predicting and managing the coronavirus disease COVID-19

论文作者

Calvetti, Daniela, Hoover, Alexander, Rose, Johnie, Somersalo, Erkki

论文摘要

SARS-COV-2传播的数学模型用于指导旨在包含和减速传染的缓解步骤的设计,并确定即将违反医疗保健系统激增能力的违反。只有关于每日新感染的造成信息的挑战是人口的地理异质性更加复杂。为了解决这个问题,我们建议使用基于网络的分布式模型来解决农村环境和城市环境之间的差异,在这些模型中,大流行的传播在不同的本地同类群体中与嵌套SEIR模型进行了描述。模型参数的设置考虑到了这样一个事实,即SARS-COV-2传播主要是通过人类到人类的接触发生,并且个人之间的接触频率在城市和农村地区之间有所不同,并且可能会随着时间的推移而发生变化。此外,该病毒传播到未感染的社区的可能性与来自感染的其他社区的个人涌入有关。为了说明这些重要方面,网络的每个节点的特征在于其成员之间的接触频率以及其与其他节点的连接水平。人口普查和手机数据可用于设置网络的邻接矩阵,进而可以修改以说明不同级别的缓解措施。为了使我们提出易于自定义的网络SEIR模型,它是根据可解释的参数来制定的,可以从可用的社区级别数据估算。使用COVID-19的数据估计模型参数,俄亥俄州和密歇根州。网络模型还产生了一个地理分布的计算模型,该模型解释了传染病的地理动力学,例如,在郊区和农村地区包围的较大城市中。

Mathematical models of SARS-CoV-2 spread are used for guiding the design of mitigation steps aimed at containing and decelerating the contagion, and at identifying impending breaches of health care system surge capacity. The challenges of having only lacunary information about daily new infections are compounded by the geographic heterogeneity of the population. To address this problem, we propose to account for the differences between rural and urban settings using network-based, distributed models where the spread of the pandemic is described in distinct local cohorts with nested SEIR models. The setting of the model parameters takes into account the fact that SARS-CoV-2 transmission occurs mostly via human-to-human contact, and that the frequency of contact among individuals differs between urban and rural areas, and may change over time. Moreover, the probability that the virus spreads into an uninfected community is associated with influx of individuals from other communities where the infection is present. To account for these important aspects, each node of the network is characterized by the frequency of contact between its members and by its level of connectivity with other nodes. Census and cell phone data can be used to set up the adjacency matrix of the network, which can, in turn, be modified to account for different levels of mitigation measures. In order to make the network SEIR model that we propose easy to customize, it is formulated in terms of easily interpretable parameters that can be estimated from available community level data. The models parameters are estimated with Bayesian techniques using COVID-19 data for the states of Ohio and Michigan. The network model also gives rise to a geographically distributed computational model that explains the geographic dynamics of the contagion, e.g., in larger cities surrounded by suburban and rural areas.

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