论文标题

地球上国内生产总值的能源限制

Energy Limits to the Gross Domestic Product on Earth

论文作者

Hein, Andreas M., Rudelle, Jean-Baptiste

论文摘要

一旦实现了碳排放中立性和其他可持续性目标,一个普遍的假设是,当前利率的经济增长可以在21世纪以后维持。但是,即使我们实现了这些目标,本文也表明,地球全球经济的整体规模纯粹是由于能量和热力学因素而面临的。为此,我们将全球变暖分为两个组成部分:与经济活动相关的能源消耗的温室气体效应和散热。对于由于温室气体排放而导致的温度升高,我们将2°C和5°C作为下限和上限。为了与能源消耗相关的热量耗散效应,我们使用简化的模型来全球变暖,并推断全球国内生产总值(GDP)与初级能源生产之间的历史相关性。结合了这两种效果,我们将可接受的全球变暖温度极限设置为高于工业前水平的7°C。我们基于大规模部署碳中性能源的可行性,开发四种情况。我们的结果表明,对于每年2%的GDP增长,上限将在几个世纪内最多达到上限,即使在有利的场景中,诸如融合能力等新的能源大规模部署的情况下也是如此。我们得出的结论是,除非GDP在很大程度上可以与能源消耗脱钩,否则热力学将使地球经济规模牢固地限制。进一步的经济增长必然需要将经济活动扩展到太空。

Once carbon emission neutrality and other sustainability goals have been achieved, a widespread assumption is that economic growth at current rates can be sustained beyond the 21st century. However, even if we achieve these goals, this article shows that the overall size of Earth's global economy is facing an upper limit purely due to energy and thermodynamic factors. For that, we break down global warming into two components: the greenhouse gas effect and heat dissipation from energy consumption related to economic activities. For the temperature increase due to greenhouse gas emissions, we take 2 °C and 5 °C as our lower and upper bounds. For the warming effect of heat dissipation related to energy consumption, we use a simplified model for global warming and an extrapolation of the historical correlation between global gross domestic product (GDP) and primary energy production. Combining the two effects, we set the acceptable global warming temperature limit to 7 °C above pre-industrial levels. We develop four scenarios, based on the viability of large-scale deployment of carbon-neutral energy sources. Our results indicate that for a 2% annual GDP growth, the upper limit will be reached at best within a few centuries, even in favorable scenarios where new energy sources such as fusion power are deployed on a massive scale. We conclude that unless GDP can be largely decoupled from energy consumption, thermodynamics will put a hard cap on the size of Earth's economy. Further economic growth would necessarily require expanding economic activities into space.

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