论文标题

复制市场:AI复制中的结果,课程,挑战和机遇

Replication Markets: Results, Lessons, Challenges and Opportunities in AI Replication

论文作者

Liu, Yang, Gordon, Michael, Wang, Juntao, Bishop, Michael, Chen, Yiling, Pfeiffer, Thomas, Twardy, Charles, Viganola, Domenico

论文摘要

在过去的十年中,社会和行为科学中有系统的大规模复制项目的出现(Camerer等,2016,2018; Ebersole等,2016; Ebersole et al。,2016; Klein等,2014,2014,2014; Collaboration; Collaboration,2015)。 These projects were driven by theoretical and conceptual concerns about a high fraction of "false positives" in the scientific publications (Ioannidis, 2005) (and a high prevalence of "questionable research practices" (Simmons, Nelson, and Simonsohn, 2011). Concerns about the credibility of research findings are not unique to the behavioral and social sciences; within Computer Science, Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML) are特别关注的领域(Lucic等,2018; Freire,Bonnet和Shasha,2012; Gundersen和Kjensmo,2018年; Henderson等,2018)。鉴于行为和社会科学的开拓性作用论文,我们审查了行为和社会科学和DARPA分数项目中使用的方法。

The last decade saw the emergence of systematic large-scale replication projects in the social and behavioral sciences, (Camerer et al., 2016, 2018; Ebersole et al., 2016; Klein et al., 2014, 2018; Collaboration, 2015). These projects were driven by theoretical and conceptual concerns about a high fraction of "false positives" in the scientific publications (Ioannidis, 2005) (and a high prevalence of "questionable research practices" (Simmons, Nelson, and Simonsohn, 2011). Concerns about the credibility of research findings are not unique to the behavioral and social sciences; within Computer Science, Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML) are areas of particular concern (Lucic et al., 2018; Freire, Bonnet, and Shasha, 2012; Gundersen and Kjensmo, 2018; Henderson et al., 2018). Given the pioneering role of the behavioral and social sciences in the promotion of novel methodologies to improve the credibility of research, it is a promising approach to analyze the lessons learned from this field and adjust strategies for Computer Science, AI and ML In this paper, we review approaches used in the behavioral and social sciences and in the DARPA SCORE project. We particularly focus on the role of human forecasting of replication outcomes, and how forecasting can leverage the information gained from relatively labor and resource-intensive replications. We will discuss opportunities and challenges of using these approaches to monitor and improve the credibility of research areas in Computer Science, AI, and ML.

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