论文标题
印度茶拍卖中品尝估值的信息内容
The Information Content of Taster's Valuation in Tea Auctions of India
论文作者
论文摘要
在线进行的茶拍卖是作为上升的开放拍卖。在拍卖之前,将茶块的样本发送给潜在的竞标者和一组茶点。卖方的储备价格是Tea Taster估值的机密功能,这也可能是向投标人的信号。 在本文中,我们在2018-2019期间的49周中与单个茶具的J托马斯(J Thomas)的数据集合作,并考虑了以下目标: $ \ bullet $根据来源和等级对各种类别的茶尘(25)的客观分类(25)(25)对茶尘进行了更易于管理的分类。 $ \ bullet $预测在拍卖市场中将出售哪些茶批,而最终价格则以销售为条件。 $ \ bullet $研究出售茶拍卖品的价格和比率的分配。 $ \ bullet $详细分析了从Tea Taster的估值中获得的信息及其对最终拍卖价格的影响。 所使用的模型显示了交叉验证的各种有希望的结果。通过分析估值与实际价格之间的因果关系,可以牢固确定估值的重要性。作者希望,对各种因素所扮演的角色的研究以及对拍卖游戏玩家的决策过程的详细分析将是重要的,可以为去除手动干扰以自动拍卖程序的方式铺平了道路,并提高了市场的茶质量。
Tea auctions across India occur as an ascending open auction, conducted online. Before the auction, a sample of the tea lot is sent to potential bidders and a group of tea tasters. The seller's reserve price is a confidential function of the tea taster's valuation, which also possibly acts as a signal to the bidders. In this paper, we work with the dataset from a single tea auction house, J Thomas, of tea dust category, on 49 weeks in the time span of 2018-2019, with the following objectives in mind: $\bullet$ Objective classification of the various categories of tea dust (25) into a more manageable, and robust classification of the tea dust, based on source and grades. $\bullet$ Predict which tea lots would be sold in the auction market, and a model for the final price conditioned on sale. $\bullet$ To study the distribution of price and ratio of the sold tea auction lots. $\bullet$ Make a detailed analysis of the information obtained from the tea taster's valuation and its impact on the final auction price. The model used has shown various promising results on cross-validation. The importance of valuation is firmly established through analysis of causal relationship between the valuation and the actual price. The authors hope that this study of the properties and the detailed analysis of the role played by the various factors, would be significant in the decision making process for the players of the auction game, pave the way to remove the manual interference in an attempt to automate the auction procedure, and improve tea quality in markets.