论文标题

冠状病毒与体育联赛:在本赛季无法恢复时获得公平排名

Coronavirus and sports leagues: obtaining a fair ranking when the season cannot resume

论文作者

Csató, László

论文摘要

许多体育联赛都以紧密安排的循环格式播放,为推迟比赛留下了有限的时间窗口。如果由于外部冲击(例如2020年的冠状病毒大流行),赛季无法恢复,那么团队的排名将变得非凡:有必要考虑日程度不平衡,并且可能需要进行不同数量的比赛。首先,我们在这些不完整的比赛中确定了一组所需的公理。可以验证的是,广义行总和是一个评分规则的参数家族,使所有人满意。特别是,建立良好的最小二乘方法最大程度地提高了对手对排名的力量的影响。我们的方法适用于六项主要的欧洲足球比赛,在该比赛中,对于对手的实力调整的重量,排名很强。还讨论了一些方法论上简单的替代政策。

Many sports leagues are played in a tightly scheduled round-robin format, leaving a limited time window to postpone matches. If the season cannot resume due to an external shock such as the coronavirus pandemic in 2020, the ranking of the teams becomes non-trivial: it is necessary to account for schedule imbalances and possibly for the different number of matches played. First in the literature, we identify a set of desired axioms for ranking in these incomplete tournaments. It is verified that the generalised row sum, a parametric family of scoring rules, satisfies all of them. In particular, the well-established least squares method maximizes the influence of the strength of opponents on the ranking. Our approach is applied for six major premier European soccer competitions, where the rankings are found to be robust concerning the weight of adjustment for the strength of the opponents. Some methodologically simpler alternative policies are also discussed.

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