论文标题
股票用脚投票：一份纸条文件可以与19日大流行作斗争吗？
Stocks Vote with Their Feet: Can a Piece of Paper Document Fights the COVID-19 Pandemic?
论文作者
论文摘要
评估COVID-19的大流行和政策效率的趋势对于政策制定者和股票投资者都是必不可少的，但是具有挑战性，因为危机以极高的速度展开，而先前的指数不适合衡量Covid-19的政策有效性。本文基于在2020年1月1日至4月16日在中国发布的省级纸质文件基于政策不确定性的索引，其建筑方法与政策不确定性指数相似，其建筑方法与政策不确定性指数相似。本文使用DCC-Garch模型符合条件协方差的多系列变化规则。本文最终检验了四个假设，即政策有效性的时空差异及其对COVID-19大流行和股票市场的溢出效应。通过这种三合会结构的内部相互作用，我们可以提出更具体和更科学的建议，以在这种特殊时间保持股票市场的稳定性。
Assessing the trend of the COVID-19 pandemic and policy effectiveness is essential for both policymakers and stock investors, but challenging because the crisis has unfolded with extreme speed and the previous index was not suitable for measuring policy effectiveness for COVID-19. This paper builds an index of policy effectiveness on fighting COVID-19 pandemic, whose building method is similar to the index of Policy Uncertainty, based on province-level paper documents released in China from Jan.1st to Apr.16th of 2020. This paper also studies the relationships among COVID-19 daily confirmed cases, stock market volatility, and document-based policy effectiveness in China. This paper uses the DCC-GARCH model to fit conditional covariance's change rule of multi-series. This paper finally tests four hypotheses, about the time-space difference of policy effectiveness and its overflow effect both on the COVID-19 pandemic and stock market. Through the inner interaction of this triad structure, we can bring forward more specific and scientific suggestions to maintain stability in the stock market at such exceptional times.
