论文标题
鱼不应孤立：使用合奏模型计算最大可持续产量
Fish should not be in isolation: Calculating maximum sustainable yield using an ensemble model
论文作者
论文摘要
许多司法管辖区具有管理鱼类股票以最大可持续收益率（MSY）的法律要求。通常，MSY是根据单物种计算的，但是实际上，一个物种的产量不仅取决于其自身的捕鱼水平，而且取决于其他物种的捕鱼水平。我们表明，在单个物种进行管理时，对相互作用物种对MSY的影响的大胆假设通常导致不一致和相互矛盾的建议，这表明了多种产品MSY（MMSY）的要求。尽管MMSY有几个定义，但尚无共识。此外，计算MMSY可能很困难，因为有许多模型，各种复杂性，每个模型都具有自己的优势和劣势，并且如果MMSY是否可以对所使用的模型敏感，则其值。在这里，我们使用一个合奏模型将不同的多物种模型相结合，利用其个人优势并量化其不确定性和差异，以计算更强大的MMSY。我们通过计算北海9种的MMSY来证明这一点。我们发现，与当前水平相比，在单物种MSY上钓鱼是不可能的。
Many jurisdictions have a legal requirement to manage fish stocks to maximum sustainable yield (MSY). Generally, MSY is calculated on a single-species basis, however in reality, the yield of one species depends, not only on its own fishing level, but that of other species. We show that bold assumptions about the effect of interacting species on MSY are made when managing on a single-species basis, often leading to inconsistent and conflicting advice, demonstrating the requirement of a multispecies MSY (MMSY). Although there are several definitions of MMSY, there is no consensus. Furthermore, calculating a MMSY can be difficult as there are many models, of varying complexity, each with their own strengths and weaknesses, and the value if MMSY can be sensitive to the model used. Here, we use an ensemble model to combine different multispecies models, exploiting their individual strengths and quantifying their uncertainties and discrepancies, to calculate a more robust MMSY. We demonstrate this by calculating a MMSY for nine species in the North Sea. We found that it would be impossible to fish at single-species MSY and that MMSY led to higher yields and revenues than current levels.
