论文标题
是时候干预Covid-19爆发真的很重要吗？全球灵敏度分析方法
Is Time to Intervention in the COVID-19 Outbreak Really Important? A Global Sensitivity Analysis Approach
论文作者
论文摘要
意大利一直是最早受到联盟19日大流行影响的时间倾斜的国家之一。采用社会距离和重型封锁措施给人口和经济带来了沉重的负担。这些措施的时机具有至关重要的政策制定意义。我们使用意大利大流行进展的公开数据进行定量评估干预时间对大流行扩张的影响，该方法将一种结合了易感性暴露于感染感染的（SEIR）模型与统计学习方法结合在一起的方法。该建模表明，锁定在意大利的大流行轨迹强烈偏离。但是，截至2020年4月20日的预测和实际数据之间的差异只能通过实际发行日与措施的全部效果之间的时间滞后来解释。为了了解干预在其他因素方面的相对重要性，对模型预测进行了彻底的不确定性量化。全球敏感性指数表明，干预时间的相关时间是隔离的4倍，比大流行的内在特征（例如保护和感染率）高出八倍。还量化和研究了它们的相互作用的相关性。
Italy has been one of the first countries timewise strongly impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic. The adoption of social distancing and heavy lockdown measures is posing a heavy burden on the population and the economy. The timing of the measures has crucial policy-making implications. Using publicly available data for the pandemic progression in Italy, we quantitatively assess the effect of the intervention time on the pandemic expansion, with a methodology that combines a generalized susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) model together with statistical learning methods. The modeling shows that the lockdown has strongly deviated the pandemic trajectory in Italy. However, the difference between the forecasts and real data up to 20 April 2020 can be explained only by the existence of a time lag between the actual issuance date and the full effect of the measures. To understand the relative importance of intervention with respect to other factors, a thorough uncertainty quantification of the model predictions is performed. Global sensitivity indices show that the the time of intervention is 4 times more relevant than quarantine, and eight times more important than intrinsic features of the pandemic such as protection and infection rates. The relevance of their interactions is also quantified and studied.
