论文标题
与意大利，西班牙和英格兰的其余部分相对于伦巴第，马德里和伦敦的行为，推断了被伦巴第，马德里和伦敦的行为感染的人口的有效分数
Inferring the effective fraction of the population infected with Covid-19 from the behaviour of Lombardy, Madrid and London relative to the remainder of Italy, Spain and England
论文作者
论文摘要
我使用一个非常简单的确定性模型将Covid-19在大量人群中的传播中传播。使用此方法比较意大利，西班牙和英国不同地区之间每天死亡人数的相对衰减，每个地区都适用于全国各地的社会距离程序相同的社会距离程序，我获得了已经在4月10日之前感染的人口总数的估计值。在受影响最严重的地区，伦巴第，马德里和伦敦，这一比例高于预期，即$ \ \ \ \ \ \ $ \约0.3 $。然后可以将此结果转换为对感染率$ ifr $的确定，这似乎是$ ifr \ \ ifr \约0.0025-0.005 $，甚至在伦敦更小，比通常假设的要低一些。另外，该结果也可以被解释为有效的人口比例比简单计数要大的比例更大，如果易感性的易感性有所不同，而差异的差异约为2个。对解释或效果组合的含义非常相似。
I use a very simple deterministic model for the spread of Covid-19 in a large population. Using this to compare the relative decay of the number of deaths per day between different regions in Italy, Spain and England, each applying in principle the same social distancing procedures across the whole country, I obtain an estimate of the total fraction of the population which had already become infected by April 10th. In the most heavily affected regions, Lombardy, Madrid and London, this fraction is higher than expected, i.e. $\approx 0.3$. This result can then be converted to a determination of the infection fatality rate $ifr$, which appears to be $ifr \approx 0.0025-0.005$, and even smaller in London, somewhat lower than usually assumed. Alternatively, the result can also be interpreted as an effectively larger fraction of the population than simple counting would suggest if there is a variation in susceptibility to infection with a variance of up to a value of about 2. The implications are very similar for either interpretation or for a combination of effects.
