论文标题
我们在加权什么?概率加权的机械模型
What are we weighting for? A mechanistic model for probability weighting
论文作者
论文摘要
行为经济学为人类经济行为模式提供了标签。概率加权就是这样的标签。它表达了决策形式模型(即模型参数)中使用的概率与从真实人的决策(经过经验估计的相同参数)推论的概率之间的不匹配。推断的概率称为“决策权重”。被认为是一个强大的实验发现,即决策权重高于罕见事件的概率,并且(必须通过归一化)低于常见事件的概率。通常,这是一种认知偏见,即人的判断错误。在这里,我们指出可以用不同的观察来描述相同的观察:从广义上讲,概率加权意味着决策者对世界的不确定性比观察者更大。我们提供了一种合理的机制,从而自然会出现不确定性的这种差异:当决策者必须将概率估算为时间序列中的频率时,而观察者则知道它们是先验的。这表明,概率加权作为决策者在观察者模型中未确定的不确定性的原则性响应的替代介绍。
Behavioural economics provides labels for patterns in human economic behaviour. Probability weighting is one such label. It expresses a mismatch between probabilities used in a formal model of a decision (i.e. model parameters) and probabilities inferred from real people's decisions (the same parameters estimated empirically). The inferred probabilities are called "decision weights." It is considered a robust experimental finding that decision weights are higher than probabilities for rare events, and (necessarily, through normalisation) lower than probabilities for common events. Typically this is presented as a cognitive bias, i.e. an error of judgement by the person. Here we point out that the same observation can be described differently: broadly speaking, probability weighting means that a decision maker has greater uncertainty about the world than the observer. We offer a plausible mechanism whereby such differences in uncertainty arise naturally: when a decision maker must estimate probabilities as frequencies in a time series while the observer knows them a priori. This suggests an alternative presentation of probability weighting as a principled response by a decision maker to uncertainties unaccounted for in an observer's model.