论文标题
生产网络上的遇险传播:链接的粗粒度和模块化
Distress propagation on production networks: Coarse-graining and modularity of linkages
论文作者
论文摘要
遇险传播发生在连接的网络中,其速率和程度取决于网络拓扑。为了研究这一点,我们选择经济生产网络作为范式。可以在许多层面上检查经济网络:单个代理商(微观),公司/部门(介观)或国家(宏观)之间的联系。新的紧急动力学特性出现在各个级别,因此粒度很重要。对于病毒流行病,即使单个节点也可以充当困境的中心,并可能影响整个网络。然而,众所周知,经济网络在微观层面上是免疫的,并且更容易在中索/宏观水平中失败。我们提出了一个动态交互模型,以表征在不同震中启动的网络不同模块的遇险传播机制。脆弱的模块通常会导致大量的不稳定。我们使用在一个发展中国家的一个行政状态下,使用了1.14亿个公司的投入输出链接的独特经验数据集证明了我们的方法论。该网络具有多个轮毂和辐条结构,表现出适度的脱位性,随着粗粒的水平而变化。新颖性在于在不同级别的粒度或模块化层面表征生产网络,并发现“太大到失败”模块取代了遇险繁殖中的“过于中心”模块。
Distress propagation occurs in connected networks, its rate and extent being dependent on network topology. To study this, we choose economic production networks as a paradigm. An economic network can be examined at many levels: linkages among individual agents (microscopic), among firms/sectors (mesoscopic) or among countries (macroscopic). New emergent dynamical properties appear at every level, so the granularity matters. For viral epidemics, even an individual node may act as an epicenter of distress and potentially affect the entire network. Economic networks, however, are known to be immune at the micro-levels and more prone to failure in the meso/macro-levels. We propose a dynamical interaction model to characterize the mechanism of distress propagation, across different modules of a network, initiated at different epicenters. Vulnerable modules often lead to large degrees of destabilization. We demonstrate our methodology using a unique empirical data-set of input-output linkages across 0.14 million firms in one administrative state of India, a developing economy. The network has multiple hub-and-spoke structures that exhibits moderate disassortativity, which varies with the level of coarse-graining. The novelty lies in characterizing the production network at different levels of granularity or modularity, and finding `too-big-to-fail' modules supersede `too-central-to-fail' modules in distress propagation.