论文标题

临床概念可能包含在与健康相关的数学模型中

Clinical concepts might be included in health-related mathematic models

论文作者

Dinamarca, José Luis, Aguilar, Sara, Runzer-Colmenares, Fernando, Morales, Alexander

论文摘要

在缺乏强大证据的情况下,允许全面决策方法的数学模型的构建很重要。虽然使用易于理解的模型使用直接解释的值很有趣,但我们对已发布的索引(Covid-19负担索引)进行了分析,并发现它似乎过于简化。拟议的索引(具有当前数据)可能在地理和行政上狭窄的地方有用。但是在整个过程中以及像美国国家一样广泛的地方,应用是不准确的。考虑到所描述的临床概念,纠正和完善所引用的模型是理想的选择,以利用该提案并产生更准确的响应,这可以作为措施实施和预测当前大流行的行为的投入。但是,我们建议的是在数量和适用性方面提高模型的准确性,同意“留在家里”的概念。互补领域之间的方法应该是我们必须打开的门,以产生我们需要的新证据。数学不应分发临床科学。

The construction of mathematical models that allow comprehensive approach of decision-making in situations of absence of robust evidence is important. While it is interesting to use models that are easy to understand, using values of direct interpretation, we analized a published index (COVID-19 Burden Index) and found it seems to be oversimplified. It is possible that the proposed index, with current data, could be useful in geographically and administratively narrowed places. But it is inaccurate to be applied throughout the process and in places as broad as American countries. It would be ideal to correct and refine the referred model, bearing in mind clinical concepts described, to take advantage of the proposal and generate a more accurate response, which can serve as an input both in the implementation of measures and in the prediction of the behavior of a pandemic like the current one. However, what we propose is to improve the accuracy of the model in terms of quantities and applicability, agreeing with the concept of "stay at home". The approach between complementary areas of knowledge should be the door that we must open to generate the new evidence we need. Mathematics should not dispense clinical sciences.

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