论文标题
结束英国的共同流行病的流行
Ending the COVID-19 epidemic in the United Kingdom
论文作者
论文摘要
社会疏远和封锁是英国政府使用的两种主要非药物干预措施，以遏制和控制Covid-19-19的流行病；即使Ferguson等人的帝国大学报告的结果表明，感染的影响随着年龄的增长而急剧增加，这是在整个国家统一应用的。本文开发了用于流行病的主力SIR模型的一种变体，其中人口分为多个年龄段。这使我们能够了解年龄依赖性控制对流行病的影响，并探索可能的退出策略。
Social distancing and lockdown are the two main non-pharmaceutical interventions being used by the UK government to contain and control the COVID-19 epidemic; these are being applied uniformly across the entire country, even though the results of the Imperial College report by Ferguson et al show that the impact of the infection increases sharply with age. This paper develops a variant of the workhorse SIR model for epidemics, where the population is classified into a number of age groups. This allows us to understand the effects of age-dependent controls on the epidemic, and explore possible exit strategies.
