论文标题
通过贝叶斯推断对超大物物二进制黑洞的明确识别
Toward the unambiguous identification of supermassive binary black holes through Bayesian inference
论文作者
论文摘要
除Blazar OJ〜287外，尚未发现亚比索轨道分离的超质量二进制黑洞。与使用脉冲星时阵列中的超级企业二进制文件的纳米赫兹重力波的全球狩猎同时，越来越多的来自电磁调查的候选样本样本，尤其是搜索了Quasar的光学光曲线中的周期性变化。但是，周期性搜索易于从单个超质量黑洞的积聚盘中产生的误报和准周期性振荡，尤其是当数据范围少于几个信号周期时。我们提出了一种在存在红噪声的情况下检测准（准）周期性的贝叶斯方法。我们将此方法应用于二进制候选PG1302 $ - $ 102，并表明a）对于准周期性，有非常强烈的支持（贝叶斯因子$> 10^6 $），b）b）b）数据略有利于正弦信号的准周期性振荡，我们将其解释为反对二进制黑洞黑洞的临时证据。我们还发现，普遍的潮湿随机行走红色噪声模型不受99.9 \％的信誉。最后，我们概述了未来的工作，该工作可能会使超级二进制黑洞的明确识别。
Supermassive binary black holes at sub-parsec orbital separations have yet to be discovered, with the possible exception of blazar OJ~287. In parallel to the global hunt for nanohertz gravitational waves from supermassive binaries using pulsar timing arrays, there has been a growing sample of candidates reported from electromagnetic surveys, particularly searches for periodic variations in optical light curves of quasars. However, the periodicity search is prone to false positives from quasar red noise and quasi-periodic oscillations from the accretion disc of a single supermassive black hole---especially when the data span fewer than a few signal cycles. We present a Bayesian method for the detection of quasar (quasi-)periodicity in the presence of red noise. We apply this method to the binary candidate PG1302$-$102, and show that a) there is very strong support (Bayes factor $>10^6$) for quasi-periodicity, and b) the data slightly favour a quasi-periodic oscillation over a sinusoidal signal, which we interpret as modest evidence against the binary black hole hypothesis. We also find that the prevalent damped random walk red-noise model is disfavored with more than 99.9\% credibility. Finally, we outline future work that may enable the unambiguous identification of supermassive binary black holes.
