论文标题
替代航空计划的成本估算，反对与太阳能质子事件相关的潜在辐射暴露的成本估算
Cost estimation for alternative aviation plans against potential radiation exposure associated with solar proton events for the airline industry
论文作者
论文摘要
我们提出了一种系统的方法，可以有效地评估由太阳能弹性弹性的太阳能事件（SPE）引起的潜在风险成本。我们还评估了辐射的相关健康风险，以提供相关的替代方法来最大程度地减少经济损失和机会。每个SPE诱导的每次飞行乘客诱导的估计辐射剂量是使用Exokyoto和Phits计算的。我们确定了估计剂量极限在1和20msv的几个方案，分别对应于公众和职业暴露的有效剂量限制，以及较高剂量引起了极端的超毛。由于潜在的辐射剂量下的法律限制，我们将假设的航空公司关闭方案设置为1MSV，每次飞行乘客。在这种情况下，我们计算了取消飞行的直接和机会成本的潜在损失。同时，我们认为，即使在这种情况下，如果飞机在略低的高度飞行（从12公里到9.5km：从234到365g/cm $ $ $^{2} $），总损失将变得比飞行取消相比小得多，估计的总剂量从1.2降低到0.45msv，以下是公众的限制，以下是限制的限制。如果在较低的高度上飞行（7公里：大气深度484g/cm $^{2} $），估计的总剂量变小，为0.12 msv。如果我们假设燃油成本的增加与大气深度的增加成正比，则成本的增加为1.56和2.07，分别在9.5公里和7 km处飞行。较低的高度飞行为严重SPE诱导的辐射剂量的潜在风险提供了更多的安全性。同时，由于取消航班造成的总损失，我们建议考虑到较低的飞行高度是防止太阳耀斑的最佳保护。
We present a systematic approach to effectively evaluate potential risk cost caused by exposure to solar proton events (SPEs) from solar flares for the airline industry. We also evaluate associated health risks from radiation, to provide relevant alternative ways to minimize economic loss and opportunity. The estimated radiation dose induced by each SPE for the passengers of each flight is calculated using ExoKyoto and PHITS. We determine a few scenarios for the estimated dose limit at 1 and 20mSv, corresponding to the effective dose limit for the general public and occupational exposure, respectively, as well as a higher dose induced an extreme superflare. We set a hypothetical airline shutdown scenario at 1mSv for a single flight per passenger, due to legal restrictions under the potential radiation dose. In such a scenario, we calculate the potential loss in direct and opportunity cost under the cancelation of the flight. At the same time, we considered that, even under such a scenario, if the airplane flies at a slightly lower altitude (from 12 to 9.5km: atmospheric depth from 234 to 365g/cm$^{2}$), the total loss becomes much smaller than flight cancelation, and the estimated total dose goes down from 1.2 to 0.45mSv, which is below the effective dose limit for the general public. In case of flying at an even lower altitude (7km: atmospheric depth 484g/cm$^{2}$), the estimated total dose becomes much smaller, 0.12 mSv. If we assume the increase of fuel cost is proportional to the increase in atmospheric depth, the increase in cost becomes 1.56 and 2.07 for the case of flying at 9.5 km and at 7 km, respectively. Lower altitude flights provide more safety for the potential risk of radiation doses induced by severe SPEs. At the same time, since there is total loss caused by flight cancelation, we propose that considering lower flight altitude is the best protection against solar flares.
