论文标题

在用户营销中优化有效性优化的异质因果学习

Heterogeneous Causal Learning for Effectiveness Optimization in User Marketing

论文作者

Zou, Will Y., Du, Shuyang, Lee, James, Pedersen, Jan

论文摘要

用户营销是基于消费者的互联网公司的重点。学习算法可有效地优化增加用户参与度的营销活动,并促进与相关产品的跨市场。通过吸引用户奖励,营销方法可以有效地促进所需产品中的用户活动。奖励会通过增加未来收入而产生的巨大成本。大多数方法依赖于流失的预测来防止失去用户做出营销决策,而这些决策无法通过商业指标占据反事实结果的提升。其他预测模型能够估计异质治疗效果,但无法捕获成本与收益的平衡。我们为用户营销提出了一种治疗效果优化方法。该算法从过去的实验中学习,并利用新颖的优化方法来优化对用户选择的成本效率。该方法使用深度学习优化模型来优化决策,以治疗和奖励用户,这有效地进行了具有成本效益,有影响力的营销活动。我们的方法证明了与深度学习方法的集成并处理业务限制的优越算法灵活性。我们的模型的有效性超过了准轨道估计(R-LEARNER)模型和因果林。我们还建立了评估指标,以反映成本效益和现实世界的业务价值。与先前的ART和基线方法中最佳性能方法相比,我们提出的约束和直接优化算法的表现优于24.6%。该方法在许多产品方案(例如最佳治疗分配)中很有用,并且已在全球生产中部署。

User marketing is a key focus of consumer-based internet companies. Learning algorithms are effective to optimize marketing campaigns which increase user engagement, and facilitates cross-marketing to related products. By attracting users with rewards, marketing methods are effective to boost user activity in the desired products. Rewards incur significant cost that can be off-set by increase in future revenue. Most methodologies rely on churn predictions to prevent losing users to make marketing decisions, which cannot capture up-lift across counterfactual outcomes with business metrics. Other predictive models are capable of estimating heterogeneous treatment effects, but fail to capture the balance of cost versus benefit. We propose a treatment effect optimization methodology for user marketing. This algorithm learns from past experiments and utilizes novel optimization methods to optimize cost efficiency with respect to user selection. The method optimizes decisions using deep learning optimization models to treat and reward users, which is effective in producing cost-effective, impactful marketing campaigns. Our methodology demonstrates superior algorithmic flexibility with integration with deep learning methods and dealing with business constraints. The effectiveness of our model surpasses the quasi-oracle estimation (R-learner) model and causal forests. We also established evaluation metrics that reflect the cost-efficiency and real-world business value. Our proposed constrained and direct optimization algorithms outperform by 24.6% compared with the best performing method in prior art and baseline methods. The methodology is useful in many product scenarios such as optimal treatment allocation and it has been deployed in production world-wide.

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