论文标题
COVID-19大流行对轻度政策下人口流动性的影响:瑞典的因果证据
Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Population Mobility under Mild Policies: Causal Evidence from Sweden
论文作者
论文摘要
瑞典的社会距离政策比19009年大流行之后的大多数国家都采取了限制性的社会疏远政策。本文使用所有手机用户(从一个主要的瑞典手机网络)上使用数据,以检查瑞典温和建议和限制制度对个人流动性的冠状病毒爆发的影响,以及地理流动性的变化是否在不同的社会经济阶层中有所不同。通过采用差异性研究设计,可以在2019年和2020年访问2019年3月3月的数据。该论文得出了四个主要结论:(i)居民区的白天人口显着增加(平均增加64%); (ii)工业和商业地区的白天存在显着降低(平均降低33%); (iii)个人在一天中与家人相距的距离大大降低(最大距离的最大距离下降了38%,离家不到一公里的人的份额增加了36%); (iv)在具有不同社会经济和人口特征的地区的居民中发现了类似的迁移率。这些结果表明,轻度的政府政策可以迫使人们采取社会疏远行为。
Sweden has adopted far less restrictive social distancing policies than most countries following the COVID-19 pandemic. This paper uses data on all mobile phone users, from one major Swedish mobile phone network, to examine the impact of the Coronavirus outbreak under the Swedish mild recommendations and restrictions regime on individual mobility and if changes in geographical mobility vary over different socio-economic strata. Having access to data for January-March in both 2019 and 2020 enables the estimation of causal effects of the COVID-19 outbreak by adopting a Difference-in-Differences research design. The paper reaches four main conclusions: (i) The daytime population in residential areas increased significantly (64 percent average increase); (ii) The daytime presence in industrial and commercial areas decreased significantly (33 percent average decrease); (iii) The distance individuals move from their homes during a day was substantially reduced (38 percent decrease in the maximum distance moved and 36 percent increase in share of individuals who move less than one kilometer from home); (iv) Similar reductions in mobility were found for residents in areas with different socioeconomic and demographic characteristics. These results show that mild government policies can compel people to adopt social distancing behavior.