论文标题
一个半经验的动力学模型，以预测流行病的传播：西班牙SARS-COV-2的情况
A Semiempirical Dynamical Model to Forecast the Propagation of Epidemics: The Case of the Sars-Cov-2 in Spain
论文作者
论文摘要
基于逻辑图中的一个半经验模型已被成功地用于预测与不同国家的Covid-19爆发的几个阶段的重要数量。本文展示了如何校准模型并应用于对需要住院的人们，呼吸机的需求或将要产生的死亡人数进行预测。特别显示了在西班牙情况下获得的结果，显示了被诊断为感染的预测和死亡的预测，这将在3月13日产生的总锁定后可见。还显示了该模型如何提供有关预测西班牙不同地区感染水平的见解。该模型预测西班牙在5月底将有400,000多个被诊断的受感染病例，由于对一般人群进行大量测试的可能性的变化可能会更高。该日期预测死亡人数为46,000 +/- 15,000。该模型还预测了不同西班牙区域的感染水平，在马德里和加泰罗尼亚的情况下提供了违反直觉的结果，因为该模型显示出加泰罗尼亚的感染水平高于马德里的水平。所有这些结果都可以用来指导政策制定者，以优化资源并避免COVID-19的未来爆发。
A semiempirical model, based in the logistic map, has been succesfully applied to forecast important quantities along the several phases of the outbreak of the covid-19 for different countries. This paper shows how the model was calibrated and applied to perform predictions of people needing to be hospitalized, needs of ventilators, or the number of deaths which would be produced. It is shown specifically the results obtained in the case of Spain, showing a prediction of diagnosed infected and deaths which will be observed after the ease of the total lockdown produced the 13th of March. Is also shown how this model can provide an insight of what the level of infection in the different regions of Spain is forecasted. The model predicts for Spain for the end of May more than 400,000 diagnosed infected cases, number which will be probably higher due to the change in the possibilities of performing massive number of tests to the general population. The number of forecasted deaths for that date is 46,000 +/- 15,000. The model also predicts the level of infection at the different Spanish regions, providing a counterintuitive result in the cases of Madrid and Catalonia as the result shows a higher the level of infection at Catalonia than the level at Madrid, according with this model. All of these results can be used to guide policy makers in order to optimize resources and to avoid future outbreaks of the covid-19.
