论文标题
估计和预测在19 Covid-19冠状病毒爆发及其社会经济影响期间的空中客运
Estimating and Projecting Air Passenger Traffic during the COVID-19 Coronavirus Outbreak and its Socio-Economic Impact
论文作者
论文摘要
这项研究的主要重点是通过分析禁令对航空部门的影响的范围，收集和准备有关全球航空乘客交通的数据。根据从2010年1月到2019年10月的历史数据，实施了一个预测模型，以设置参考基线。本研究利用从在线飞行跟踪平台和在线预订系统中提取的飞机移动，还首次评估了由于COVID-19的大流行，全球航班活动的最新变化。为了研究禁令对航空的影响以及其社会经济的影响，基于过去的大流行危机和观察到的飞行量建造了几种情况。事实证明，根据这种假设的情况，根据观察到的数据，在2020年第一季度，航空损失的影响可能会使世界GDP造成的影响降低0.02％，至0.12％，在最坏的情况下，在2020年底，在2020年底，损失可能高达1.41-1.67％，起作业损失可能达到1.41-1.67％，而作业损失可能达到25-30 millions的价值。侧重于EU27，到2020年底，GDP的损失可能为1.66-1.98％，在最坏情况下，工作损失从4.2百万到500万。在短期内，有些国家会比其他国家更受影响，大多数欧洲航空公司公司都会遭受旅行禁令的困扰。
The main focus of this study is to collect and prepare data on air passengers traffic worldwide with the scope of analyze the impact of travel ban on the aviation sector. Based on historical data from January 2010 till October 2019, a forecasting model is implemented in order to set a reference baseline. Making use of airplane movements extracted from online flight tracking platforms and on-line booking systems, this study presents also a first assessment of recent changes in flight activity around the world as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. To study the effects of air travel ban on aviation and in turn its socio-economic, several scenarios are constructed based on past pandemic crisis and the observed flight volumes. It turns out that, according to this hypothetical scenarios, in the first Quarter of 2020 the impact of aviation losses could have negatively reduced World GDP by 0.02% to 0.12% according to the observed data and, in the worst case scenarios, at the end of 2020 the loss could be as high as 1.41-1.67% and job losses may reach the value of 25-30 millions. Focusing on EU27, the GDP loss may amount to 1.66-1.98% by the end of 2020 and the number of job losses from 4.2 to 5 millions in the worst case scenarios. Some countries will be more affected than others in the short run and most European airlines companies will suffer from the travel ban.
