论文标题
通过财务新闻对机构信用风险进行建模
Modeling Institutional Credit Risk with Financial News
论文作者
论文摘要
信贷风险管理是通过了解借款人资本和贷款损失储备的适当性来减轻损失的做法,这对于任何金融机构的长期可持续性和增长一直都是必须的。大众也不例外。该公司热衷于有效监视降级风险,或公司信用评级恶化时与事件相关的风险。当前降级风险建模的工作取决于第三方评级机构和风险管理咨询公司提供的定量措施的多种变化。随着这些结构化的数值数据在机构投资者中越来越多地商品化,因此人们广泛推动使用替代数据来源,例如财务新闻,收益呼叫笔录或社交媒体内容,以可能在该行业中获得竞争优势。在过去的几十年中,定性信息或非结构化文本数据的数量已经爆炸,现在可以进行尽职调查以补充信用风险的定量量度。本文提出了一个仅使用神经网络嵌入代表的新闻数据的预测降级模型。该模型独立实现了接收器操作特性曲线(AUC)下的一个区域,超过80%。作为附加功能,该新闻模型的输出概率仅使用定量度量的AUC和召回率提高了我们的基准模型的性能。定性评估还表明,与我们预测的降级事件有关的新闻文章在我们的业务环境中特别相关且高质量。
Credit risk management, the practice of mitigating losses by understanding the adequacy of a borrower's capital and loan loss reserves, has long been imperative to any financial institution's long-term sustainability and growth. MassMutual is no exception. The company is keen on effectively monitoring downgrade risk, or the risk associated with the event when credit rating of a company deteriorates. Current work in downgrade risk modeling depends on multiple variations of quantitative measures provided by third-party rating agencies and risk management consultancy companies. As these structured numerical data become increasingly commoditized among institutional investors, there has been a wide push into using alternative sources of data, such as financial news, earnings call transcripts, or social media content, to possibly gain a competitive edge in the industry. The volume of qualitative information or unstructured text data has exploded in the past decades and is now available for due diligence to supplement quantitative measures of credit risk. This paper proposes a predictive downgrade model using solely news data represented by neural network embeddings. The model standalone achieves an Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve (AUC) of more than 80 percent. The output probability from this news model, as an additional feature, improves the performance of our benchmark model using only quantitative measures by more than 5 percent in terms of both AUC and recall rate. A qualitative evaluation also indicates that news articles related to our predicted downgrade events are specially relevant and high-quality in our business context.