论文标题
用于短期流量预测的深度回声州网络:绩效比较和统计评估
Deep Echo State Networks for Short-Term Traffic Forecasting: Performance Comparison and Statistical Assessment
论文作者
论文摘要
在短期流量预测中,目标是准确预测查询预测后不久发生的感兴趣的流量参数的未来值。最近在这个长期研究领域报道的活动已由不同的深度学习方法主导,产生了过于复杂的预测模型,总体上实现了可疑实用性的准确性提高。在这项工作中,我们详细阐述了深层回声状态网络的性能。这些替代建模方法的有效学习算法和更简单的参数配置使它们成为一种竞争性的流量预测方法,用于将其应用于具有严格有限的计算资源的设备和系统中。设计了广泛的比较基准,该基准是在马德里市(西班牙)上捕获的真实交通数据,相当于130多个自动交通读取器(ATRS)和几个浅薄的学习,合奏和深度学习模型。比较基准和对报告性能差距的统计意义的分析的结果是决定性的:与其他考虑的建模对应物相比,深度回声状态网络获得了更准确的流量预测。
In short-term traffic forecasting, the goal is to accurately predict future values of a traffic parameter of interest occurring shortly after the prediction is queried. The activity reported in this long-standing research field has been lately dominated by different Deep Learning approaches, yielding overly complex forecasting models that in general achieve accuracy gains of questionable practical utility. In this work we elaborate on the performance of Deep Echo State Networks for this particular task. The efficient learning algorithm and simpler parametric configuration of these alternative modeling approaches make them emerge as a competitive traffic forecasting method for real ITS applications deployed in devices and systems with stringently limited computational resources. An extensive comparison benchmark is designed with real traffic data captured over the city of Madrid (Spain), amounting to more than 130 automatic Traffic Readers (ATRs) and several shallow learning, ensembles and Deep Learning models. Results from this comparison benchmark and the analysis of the statistical significance of the reported performance gaps are decisive: Deep Echo State Networks achieve more accurate traffic forecasts than the rest of considered modeling counterparts.