论文标题

部分可观测时空混沌系统的无模型预测

From code to market: Network of developers and correlated returns of cryptocurrencies

论文作者

Lucchini, Lorenzo, Alessandretti, Laura, Lepri, Bruno, Gallo, Angela, Baronchelli, Andrea

论文摘要

“代码是法律”是加密货币的资金原则。加密资源的安全性,可传递性,可用性和其他属性由创建的代码确定。如果代码是开源的,则正如大多数加密货币发生的那样,该原则将防止操纵并授予用户和交易者的透明度。但是,这种方法将加密货币视为孤立的实体,从而忽略了它们之间的可能联系。在这里,我们表明有4%的开发人员为多种加密货币的守则做出了贡献,并且市场反映了这些跨编程依赖性。特别是,我们揭示了通过共同开发人员连接两个加密货币的第一个编码事件导致其在接下来的几个月中的回报同步。我们的结果确定了加密货币的协作发展与其市场行为之间的明确联系。从更广泛的角度来看,我们的工作揭示了基于代码的生态系统的透明度,因此忽略了一个较忽视的系统性维度,我们预计研究人员,投资者和监管机构将会感兴趣。

"Code is law" is the funding principle of cryptocurrencies. The security, transferability, availability and other properties of a crypto-asset are determined by the code through which it is created. If code is open source, as it happens for most cryptocurrencies, this principle would prevent manipulations and grant transparency to users and traders. However, this approach considers cryptocurrencies as isolated entities thus neglecting possible connections between them. Here, we show that 4% of developers contribute to the code of more than one cryptocurrency and that the market reflects these cross-asset dependencies. In particular, we reveal that the first coding event linking two cryptocurrencies through a common developer leads to the synchronisation of their returns in the following months. Our results identify a clear link between the collaborative development of cryptocurrencies and their market behaviour. More broadly, our work reveals a so-far overlooked systemic dimension for the transparency of code-based ecosystems and we anticipate it will be of interest to researchers, investors and regulators.

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