论文标题
预测符合因果推断：治疗在临床预测模型中的作用
Prediction meets causal inference: the role of treatment in clinical prediction models
论文作者
论文摘要
在本文中，我们研究了开发临床预测模型时处理治疗方法的方法。类似于欧洲药品临床试验局最近提出的估算和框架，我们提出了一个“预测”框架，该框架是不同问题的“预测”框架，这些框架在预测基线后开始预测与治疗有关的风险时可能会引起人们的兴趣。我们提供了与这些问题相匹配的估计数的正式定义，并提供了每个设置的示例，其中每个问题都有用，并讨论了适当的估计器，包括其假设。我们说明了预测imand选择在终末期肾脏疾病患者数据集中的影响。我们认为，在预测研究中，明确定义估计和与因果推断一样重要。
In this paper we study approaches for dealing with treatment when developing a clinical prediction model. Analogous to the estimand framework recently proposed by the European Medicines Agency for clinical trials, we propose a `predictimand' framework of different questions that may be of interest when predicting risk in relation to treatment started after baseline. We provide a formal definition of the estimands matching these questions, give examples of settings in which each is useful and discuss appropriate estimators including their assumptions. We illustrate the impact of the predictimand choice in a dataset of patients with end-stage kidney disease. We argue that clearly defining the estimand is equally important in prediction research as in causal inference.
