论文标题
解决英国粮食安全的决策支持系统
A decision support system for addressing food security in the UK
论文作者
论文摘要
本文提出了一个综合决策支持系统，以模拟英国的粮食安全。在诸如食品系统之类的越来越大的动态系统中，决策者越来越难以有效地说明系统内的所有变量，这些变量可能会影响各种候选政策的颁布规定。每个影响变量本身都可能是具有由复杂概率模型支持的专家领域的动态子系统。粮食贫困最近增加了英国的问题，提出了有关粮食不安全的主要驱动因素的问题，随着时间的流逝可能会发生变化以及如何使用证据来评估决策支持的政策。在这种情况下，提出了一个综合决策支持系统，以允许决策者比较一些可能影响家庭一级粮食不安全结果的候选政策。
This paper presents an integrating decision support system to model food security in the UK. In ever-larger dynamic systems, such as the food system, it is increasingly difficult for decision-makers to effectively account for all the variables within the system that may influence the outcomes of interest under enactments of various candidate policies. Each of the influencing variables is likely, themselves, to be dynamic sub-systems with expert domains supported by sophisticated probabilistic models. Recent increases in food poverty the UK raised the questions about the main drivers to food insecurity, how this may be changing over time and how evidence can be used in evaluating policy for decision support. In this context, an integrating decision support system is proposed for household food security to allow decision-makers to compare several candidate policies which may affect the outcome of food insecurity at household level.
