论文标题
模拟巴西圣保罗州新冠状病毒的传播 - 评估隔离年轻人和老年人的流行病学影响
Modeling the transmission of new coronavirus in São Paulo State, Brazil -- Assessing epidemiological impacts of isolating young and elder persons
论文作者
论文摘要
我们开发了一种数学模型，以描述新的冠状病毒在巴西圣保罗州的传播。该模型将一个社区划分为由年轻人和老年人组成的亚种群，以考虑到严重的Covid-19患者死亡的较高风险。从圣保罗州收集的数据中，我们估计了传播和额外的死亡率，从中我们计算了基本的繁殖数字R0。从估计的参数中，估计与文献中的死亡估计相比，与文献相比，估计值是文献中的三倍。考虑到隔离为控制机制，我们将年轻人和老年人的隔离率变化，以评估他们的流行病学影响。流行病学情景主要集中在评估当时隔离时，由于这种疾病的严重covid-19病例和死亡人数的死亡人数。
We developed a mathematical model to describe the transmission of new coronavirus in the São Paulo State, Brazil. The model divided a community in subpopulations comprised by young and elder persons, in order to take into account higher risk of fatality among elder persons with severe CoViD-19. From data collected in the São Paulo State, we estimated the transmission and additional mortality rates, from which we calculated the basic reproduction number R0. From estimated parameters, estimation of the deaths due to CoViD-19 was three times lower than those found in literature. Considering isolation as a control mechanism, we varied isolation rates of young and elder persons in order to assess their epidemiological impacts. The epidemiological scenarios focused mainly on evaluating the number of severe CoViD-19 cases and deaths due to this disease when isolation is introduced in a population.
