论文标题
具有指数平滑的经常性神经网络的工业预测
Industrial Forecasting with Exponentially Smoothed Recurrent Neural Networks
论文作者
论文摘要
时间序列建模进入了需要新的建模方法的数据的大小和复杂性的空前增长的时代。尽管已经出现了许多新的通用机器学习方法,但通过更传统的统计建模方法,它们仍然理解和不调和。我们提出了一类指数平滑的复发性神经网络(RNN)的一般类,非常适合建模工业应用中出现的非平稳动态系统。特别是,我们分析了它们表征时间序列的非线性局部自相关结构的能力,并直接捕获了动态效应,例如季节性和趋势。将指数平滑的RNN应用于预测电力负载,天气数据和股票价格,突出了隐藏状态对多步时时间序列预测的指数平滑的功效。结果还表明,最初为语音处理设计的流行但更复杂的神经网络体系结构(例如LSTMS和GRU)可能过分地设计用于工业预测和轻巧的指数型体系结构,并在当时的一小部分中训练,捕获出色的特征,同时具有优越和更强大的RNNS和ARIMA模型。另外,由贝叶斯估计提供的指数平滑复发性神经网络的不确定性量化可提供改善的覆盖范围。
Time series modeling has entered an era of unprecedented growth in the size and complexity of data which require new modeling approaches. While many new general purpose machine learning approaches have emerged, they remain poorly understand and irreconcilable with more traditional statistical modeling approaches. We present a general class of exponential smoothed recurrent neural networks (RNNs) which are well suited to modeling non-stationary dynamical systems arising in industrial applications. In particular, we analyze their capacity to characterize the non-linear partial autocorrelation structure of time series and directly capture dynamic effects such as seasonality and trends. Application of exponentially smoothed RNNs to forecasting electricity load, weather data, and stock prices highlight the efficacy of exponential smoothing of the hidden state for multi-step time series forecasting. The results also suggest that popular, but more complicated neural network architectures originally designed for speech processing, such as LSTMs and GRUs, are likely over-engineered for industrial forecasting and light-weight exponentially smoothed architectures, trained in a fraction of the time, capture the salient features while being superior and more robust than simple RNNs and ARIMA models. Additionally uncertainty quantification of the exponential smoothed recurrent neural networks, provided by Bayesian estimation, is shown to provide improved coverage.