论文标题
全球Covid-19传输的非药物干预措施的情景分析
Scenario analysis of non-pharmaceutical interventions on global COVID-19 transmissions
论文作者
论文摘要
本文介绍了动态面板SIR（DP-SIR）模型，以研究非药物干预措施（NPI）对COVID-19传输动力学的影响，并具有来自全球9个国家 /地区的面板数据。通过与NPI组合不同的场景，我们的经验发现表明，国家可能会避免锁定政策，以施加封闭，戴口罩，戴口罩和集中式隔离，以控制19 Covid-19的感染。我们的结果还表明，截至2020年4月4日，某些国家（例如美国和新加坡）可能需要采取其他NPI措施，以便更有效地控制疾病传播，而其他国家可能会谨慎地考虑逐渐提高一些NPI来减轻整体经济的成本。
This paper introduces a dynamic panel SIR (DP-SIR) model to investigate the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) on the COVID-19 transmission dynamics with panel data from 9 countries across the globe. By constructing scenarios with different combinations of NPIs, our empirical findings suggest that countries may avoid the lockdown policy with imposing school closure, mask wearing and centralized quarantine to reach similar outcomes on controlling the COVID-19 infection. Our results also suggest that, as of April 4th, 2020, certain countries such as the U.S. and Singapore may require additional measures of NPIs in order to control disease transmissions more effectively, while other countries may cautiously consider to gradually lift some NPIs to mitigate the costs to the overall economy.
