论文标题
使用死亡数据估计印度热点中的Covid-19感染数量
Estimating the number of COVID-19 infections in Indian hot-spots using fatality data
论文作者
论文摘要
在印度，尚未准确确定受感染的人口。与往常一样，在任何流行病的早期阶段，首先测试严重病例的需求意味着尚未分析患有无症状或轻度亚临床症状的人群。使用死亡计数以及先前估计的疾病进展参数，我们给出了感染人群的统计估计。加倍时间是一个关键的未知输入参数，影响这些估计值，并且可能从一个地理位置到另一个地理位置都有很大差异。我们建议一种在几天之内在不同位置估算COVID-19的流行病学参数的方法，因此添加了衡量公共卫生干预成功所需的信息
In India the COVID-19 infected population has not yet been accurately established. As always in the early stages of any epidemic, the need to test serious cases first has meant that the population with asymptomatic or mild sub-clinical symptoms has not yet been analyzed. Using counts of fatalities, and previously estimated parameters for the progress of the disease, we give statistical estimates of the infected population. The doubling time is a crucial unknown input parameter which affects these estimates, and may differ strongly from one geographical location to another. We suggest a method for estimating epidemiological parameters for COVID-19 in different locations within a few days, so adding to the information required for gauging the success of public health interventions
