论文标题
可变池测试感染估计
Variable pool testing for infection spread estimation
论文作者
论文摘要
我们提出了一种有效估计仅使用少量测试精确度的人群中感染率的方法。提出的方法使用泳池测试，混合了各种尺寸的池尺寸。然后将测试结果合并，以在广泛的感染概率上产生准确的估计。此方法不需要对感染概率进行初始猜测。我们表明，使用建议的方法，即使只有一组仅$ 50 $的测试，总共只有$ 1000 $的样本可以在广泛的概率上产生合理的估计。证明只有$ 100 $测试的尺寸套件可实现$ 25 \％$的精度，而感染概率从0.001美元到$ 0.5 $。提出的方法适用于COVID-19测试。
We present a method for efficient estimation of the prevalence of infection in a population with high accuracy using only a small number of tests. The presented approach uses pool testing with a mix of pool sizes of various sizes. The test results are then combined to generate an accurate estimation over a wide range of infection probabilities. This method does not require an initial guess on the infection probability. We show that, using the suggested method, even a set of only $50$ tests with a total of only $1000$ samples can produce reasonable estimation over a wide range of probabilities. A measurement set with only $100$ tests is shown to achieve $25\%$ accuracy over infection probabilities from $0.001$ to $0.5$. The presented method is applicable to COVID-19 testing.
