论文标题
预测印度的共同疾病进展：在国家锁定的影响下
Prediction of COVID-19 Disease Progression in India : Under the Effect of National Lockdown
论文作者
论文摘要
在本政策文件中，我们实施了流行病学先生，以估算国家和州一级的基本繁殖编号$ \ MATHCAL {R} _0 $。我们还开发了统计机器学习模型，以提前预测病例。我们的分析表明，旁遮普邦（$ \ Mathcal {r} _0 \大约16 $）的情况不好。它需要立即积极关注。我们看到Madhya Pradesh（3.37），Maharastra（3.25）和Tamil Nadu（3.09）的$ \ Mathcal {R} _0 $超过3。 $ \ MATHCAL {R} _0 = 2.75 $，截至2020年3月4日。印度的$ \ Mathcal {R} _0 = 2.75 $（截至2020年3月4日起）在早期疾病进展阶段与惠贝/中国非常可比。我们的分析表明，印度的早期疾病进展与中国相似。因此，有了锁定，印度应该期望与中国一样多的情况。如果锁定工作有效，我们应该预计到5月1,2020年5月1,2020案。所有数据和\ texttt {r}代码可从\ url {https://github.com/sourish-cmi/covid19}获得。
In this policy paper, we implement the epidemiological SIR to estimate the basic reproduction number $\mathcal{R}_0$ at national and state level. We also developed the statistical machine learning model to predict the cases ahead of time. Our analysis indicates that the situation of Punjab ($\mathcal{R}_0\approx 16$) is not good. It requires immediate aggressive attention. We see the $\mathcal{R}_0$ for Madhya Pradesh (3.37) , Maharastra (3.25) and Tamil Nadu (3.09) are more than 3. The $\mathcal{R}_0$ of Andhra Pradesh (2.96), Delhi (2.82) and West Bengal (2.77) is more than the India's $\mathcal{R}_0=2.75$, as of 04 March, 2020. India's $\mathcal{R}_0=2.75$ (as of 04 March, 2020) is very much comparable to Hubei/China at the early disease progression stage. Our analysis indicates that the early disease progression of India is that of similar to China. Therefore, with lockdown in place, India should expect as many as cases if not more like China. If lockdown works, we should expect less than 66,224 cases by May 01,2020. All data and \texttt{R} code for this paper is available from \url{https://github.com/sourish-cmi/Covid19}
