论文标题
使用家庭调查的数据对疫苗接种覆盖估算的建模和呈现
Modeling and presentation of vaccination coverage estimates using data from household surveys
论文作者
论文摘要
通过将贝叶斯地统计学模型与家用调查的数据相贴合，从而产生高分辨率的疫苗接种覆盖范围的高分辨率地图变得越来越流行。通常，调查采用分层的集群采样设计。我们讨论了地图生产过程的两个关键方面的许多关键选择：对建模的调查设计的确认以及估计及其不确定性的适当呈现。具体而言，我们考虑了拟合地统计模型时的计算分层和集群级非空间过剩差异的重要性。我们还讨论了基于模型的估计的地理量表和精度之间的权衡，并展示了映射和排名的可视化方法，这些方法强调了结果的概率解释。提出了一种新型的覆盖图图表，以比较和控制整体图不确定性水平。我们将麻疹疫苗接种覆盖范围作为一个激励人物，并使用2018年尼日利亚人口和健康调查的数据说明了不同的问题。
It is becoming increasingly popular to produce high-resolution maps of vaccination coverage by fitting Bayesian geostatistical models to data from household surveys. Often, the surveys adopt a stratified cluster sampling design. We discuss a number of crucial choices with respect to two key aspects of the map production process: the acknowledgment of the survey design in modeling, and the appropriate presentation of estimates and their uncertainties. Specifically, we consider the importance of accounting for survey stratification and cluster-level non-spatial excess variation in survey outcomes when fitting geostatistical models. We also discuss the trade-off between the geographical scale and precision of model-based estimates, and demonstrate visualization methods for mapping and ranking that emphasize the probabilistic interpretation of results. A novel approach to coverage map presentation is proposed to allow comparison and control of the overall map uncertainty level. We use measles vaccination coverage in Nigeria as a motivating example and illustrate the different issues using data from the 2018 Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey.
