论文标题
预计在路易斯安那州Covid-19的开发
Projected Development of COVID-19 in Louisiana
论文作者
论文摘要
在撰写本文时，路易斯安那州在美国的人均感染是第三高的Covid-19。 3月23日，州政府发布了一项全职订单。我们分析了Covid-19在路易斯安那州的预计蔓延，而不包括在家秩序的影响。我们预测，如果没有缓解工作，将大部分国家人口感染，并且肯定会压倒路易斯安那州医疗保健系统的能力。我们进一步预测感染率降低程度的结果。需要减少超过70％的减少才能将被感染的数量限制在一百万以下。
At the time of writing, Louisiana has the third highest COVID-19 infection per capita in the United States. The state government issued a stay-at-home order effective March 23rd. We analyze the projected spread of COVID-19 in Louisiana without including the effects of the stay-at-home order. We predict that a large fraction of the state population would be infected without the mitigation efforts, and would certainly overwhelm the capacity of Louisiana health care system. We further predict the outcomes with different degrees of reduction in the infection rate. More than 70% of reduction is required to cap the number of infected to under one million.
