论文标题
无症状队列的SEIAR模型以及COVID-19的隔离政府措施效率的后果
SEIAR model with asymptomatic cohort and consequences to efficiency of quarantine government measures in COVID-19 epidemic
论文作者
论文摘要
我们提出了一种流行病的隔室SEIAR模型，作为SEIR模型的概括。我们认为，无症状的传染性队列是对疾病疾病流行动力学的理解的一部分。我们介绍并得出基本的繁殖数，作为有症状和无症状队列的基本繁殖数的加权算术平均值。由于未检测到的无症状受试者，他们可以将疾病传播得更长，这将COVID-19 $ R_0 $提高到9左右。我们表明，欧洲各个国家的欧洲流行病爆发对应于具有常用参数的模拟基于疾病covid-19的临床特征，但如果$ _0的临床特征，则$ _0 $ r_0 $ r_0 ake y hig 3倍，以此为例。目前，学术界的许多声音正在引起人们对无症状的传染性主题的关注。我们坚信，无症状的队列在Covid-19疾病的传播中起着至关重要的作用，并且必须在政府措施中了解。
We present a compartmental SEIAR model of epidemic spread as a generalization of the SEIR model. We believe that the asymptomatic infectious cohort is an omitted part of the understanding of the epidemic dynamics of disease COVID-19. We introduce and derive the basic reproduction number as the weighted arithmetic mean of the basic reproduction numbers of the symptomatic and asymptomatic cohorts. Since the asymptomatic subjects people are not detected, they can spread the disease much longer, and this increases the COVID-19 $R_0$ up to around 9. We show that European epidemic outbreaks in various European countries correspond to the simulations with commonly used parameters based on clinical characteristics of the disease COVID-19, but $R_0$ is around three times bigger if the asymptomatic cohort is taken into account. Many voices in the academic world are drawing attention to the asymptomatic group of infectious subjects at present. We are convinced that the asymptomatic cohort plays a crucial role in the spread of the COVID-19 disease, and it has to be understood during government measures.
