论文标题
在纽约州县的Covid 19爆发的第一个月的课程
Course of the first month of the COVID 19 outbreak in the New York State counties
论文作者
论文摘要
我们说明并研究了从3月1日至4月1日在整个纽约州以及每个县的整个县中报告的感染的演变。我们搜索指数趋势，并试图了解这些趋势的时机和动态是否与国家强制性的社会距离和测试措施有任何相关性。我们得出的结论是，4月1日的报告可能会大大不足以代表实际的全州感染数量，并且我们提议在接下来的几周内重新评估数据，以监控暂停指令的影响，以及越来越多的伤亡人数作为验证措施。
We illustrate and study the evolution of reported infections over the month from March 1st to April 1st in the New York State as a whole, as well as in each individual county. We search for exponential trends, and try to understand whether there is any correlation of the timing and dynamics of these trends with state mandated measures on social distancing and testing. We conclude that the reports on April 1st may be dramatically under-representing the actual number of state-wide infections, and we propose reassessment of the data over the coming weeks, to monitor for effects of the PAUSE directive, and for the increasing number of casualties as a validating measure.
