论文标题
分析全球公共卫生干预措施对Covid-19的传播动态的影响
Analyzing the World-Wide Impact of Public Health Interventions on the Transmission Dynamics of COVID-19
论文作者
论文摘要
我们根据公共卫生干预措施分析了Covid-19的繁殖数R R R R的变化。我们的结果表明，在中国采取的公共卫生措施将R从1月的1.5降低到2020年3月中旬的0.4。尽管中国实施了广泛的公共卫生措施，但全世界的繁殖数量短暂降至1以下，但将病毒引入其他国家的引入迅速导致了R.的全球平均价值不断提高。在中国，在中国受到的最严重攻击的国家，社会距离措施，R的当地价值从3.71下降到3.71至2.51。尽管如此，意大利的R值仍在高于1的水平上，允许持续的传输。到2020年3月中旬，随着Covid-19的占据没有广泛的公共卫生干预措施的地区，全球r的价值增加到与1月下旬相似的水平。
We analyze changes in the reproduction number, R, of COVID-19 in response to public health interventions. Our results indicate that public health measures undertaken in China reduced R from 1.5 in January to 0.4 in mid-March 2020. They also suggest, however, the limitations of isolation, quarantine, and large-scale attempts to limit travel. While the world-wide reproduction number briefly dropped below 1 as China implemented extensive public health measures, the introduction of the virus to other nations swiftly led to an increasing world-wide average value of R. In Italy, the nation hardest-hit following China, social distancing measures brought the local value of R down from 3.71 to 2.51. Nonetheless, the value of R in Italy persisted at levels well above 1, allowing for ongoing transmission. By mid-March 2020, as COVID-19 spread in areas without extensive public health interventions in place, the world-wide value of R increased to a level similar to that of late January.
