论文标题
Arima模型，以预测意大利Covid-2019流行病的传播和最终大小
An ARIMA model to forecast the spread and the final size of COVID-2019 epidemic in Italy
论文作者
论文摘要
冠状病毒病（Covid-2019）是一种严重的持续的新型大流行，正在迅速在世界范围内传播。意大利被广泛认为是大流行的主要中心之一，它已将2019年共同的死亡率和死亡人数最高，到了今天。在本文中，我估计了一种自回旋综合运动平均值（ARIMA）模型，以预测2020年4月4日之后的流行趋势，通过在国家和地区层面使用意大利流行病学数据。数据是指在2020年2月20日至4月4日的2月20日至2月20日的意大利卫生部（www.salute.gov.it）正式注册的每日确认案件的数量。该模型的主要优点是它易于管理和适合。此外，它可以通过提出假设流行的拐点和最终大小来首先了解基本趋势。
Coronavirus disease (COVID-2019) is a severe ongoing novel pandemic that is spreading quickly across the world. Italy, that is widely considered one of the main epicenters of the pandemic, has registered the highest COVID-2019 death rates and death toll in the world, to the present day. In this article I estimate an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model to forecast the epidemic trend over the period after April 4, 2020, by using the Italian epidemiological data at national and regional level. The data refer to the number of daily confirmed cases officially registered by the Italian Ministry of Health (www.salute.gov.it) for the period February 20 to April 4, 2020. The main advantage of this model is that it is easy to manage and fit. Moreover, it may give a first understanding of the basic trends, by suggesting the hypothetic epidemic's inflection point and final size.
