论文标题
COVID-1的动力学 - 理论预测与真实数据之间的比较，以及有关恢复正常生活的预测
Dynamics of the COVID-1 -- Comparison between the Theoretical Predictions and the Real Data, and Predictions about Returning to Normal Life
论文作者
论文摘要
去年年底，一种称为Covid-19的新冠状病毒疾病出现在武汉地区。从那时起，病毒传播到包括欧洲大部分地区在内的其他国家。我们提出了一个管理Covid-19的演变的微分方程。这个动态方程还描述了13种常见呼吸道病毒（包括SARS-COV-2）的感染人数的演变。我们使用意大利，比利时和卢森堡的实验数据来验证我们的理论预测，并将其与逻辑模型的预测进行比较。我们发现，自COVID-19的出现以来，我们的预测与现实世界非常吻合。对于仅适用于第一天的逻辑模型而言，情况并非如此。这项工作的第二部分致力于建模降阶段，即对COVID-19的测试人数的减少减少。同样在这种情况下，我们提出了一组新的动态微分方程，这些方程是我们通过数值求解的。我们使用与实验数据进行参数化的微分方程来做出多个预测，例如意大利，比利时和卢森堡将达到峰值数量的SARS-COV-2感染者。下降曲线提供了有价值的信息，例如在给定国家的Covid-19流行期间，因此何时可以恢复正常生活。当人口受到限制性较小的措施较少的措施时，对Covid-19的动力学的研究超出了这项工作的范围，这将是未来工作的问题。
A new coronavirus disease, called COVID-19, appeared in the Chinese region of Wuhan at the end of last year; since then the virus spread to other countries, including most of Europe. We propose a differential equation governing the evolution of the COVID-19. This dynamic equation also describes the evolution of the number of infected people for 13 common respiratory viruses (including the SARS-CoV-2). We validate our theoretical predictions with experimental data for Italy, Belgium and Luxembourg, and compare them with the predictions of the logistic model. We find that our predictions are in good agreement with the real world since the beginning of the appearance of the COVID-19; this is not the case for the logistic model that only applies to the first days. The second part of the work is devoted to modelling the descending phase, i.e. the decrease of the number of people tested positive for COVID-19. Also in this case, we propose a new set of dynamic differential equations that we solved numerically. We use our differential equations parametrised with experimental data to make several predictions, such as the date when Italy, Belgium, and Luxembourg will reach a peak number of SARS-CoV-2 infected people. The descending curves provide valuable information such as the duration of the COVID-19 epidemic in a given Country and therefore when it will be possible to return to normal life. The study of the the dynamics of COVID-19 when the population have been subject to less restrictive measures is beyond the scope of this work and it will be matter of future works.
