论文标题
安慰剂控制的新疾病临床试验的机器学习替代方案:底漆
A Machine Learning alternative to placebo-controlled clinical trials upon new diseases: A primer
论文作者
论文摘要
一种新的危险和传染性疾病的出现需要比通常的机制更快地开发药物疗法。许多药物疗法的开发包括通过不同的临床试验研究不同特定药物组合的影响,通过将其输送到病患者的测试组中,同时安慰剂治疗已交付给其余病患者,称为对照组。我们将上述技术与一种新技术进行了比较,在该技术中,所有患者都接受了不同且合理的药物组合,并利用这种结果来提供神经网络。通过平均波动并识别出不同的患者特征,神经网络了解了将患者初始状态与治疗结果联系起来的模式,因此可以比上述方法更好地预测最佳药物疗法。与许多可用的作品相反,我们不研究药物组成或相互作用的任何细节,而是从现象学的角度构成和解决问题,这使我们能够比较这两种方法。尽管结论是通过数学建模得出的,并且在任何合理的模型上都是稳定的,但这是概念验证,在面对实际情况之前,应在其他专业知识中进行研究。所有计算,工具和脚本均已为社区进行开源,以测试,修改或扩展它。最后,应该提到的是,尽管此处介绍的结果是在医学科学中的新疾病的背景下,但这些对于任何需要对照组进行实验技术的领域都有用。
The appearance of a new dangerous and contagious disease requires the development of a drug therapy faster than what is foreseen by usual mechanisms. Many drug therapy developments consist in investigating through different clinical trials the effects of different specific drug combinations by delivering it into a test group of ill patients, meanwhile a placebo treatment is delivered to the remaining ill patients, known as the control group. We compare the above technique to a new technique in which all patients receive a different and reasonable combination of drugs and use this outcome to feed a Neural Network. By averaging out fluctuations and recognizing different patient features, the Neural Network learns the pattern that connects the patients initial state to the outcome of the treatments and therefore can predict the best drug therapy better than the above method. In contrast to many available works, we do not study any detail of drugs composition nor interaction, but instead pose and solve the problem from a phenomenological point of view, which allows us to compare both methods. Although the conclusion is reached through mathematical modeling and is stable upon any reasonable model, this is a proof-of-concept that should be studied within other expertises before confronting a real scenario. All calculations, tools and scripts have been made open source for the community to test, modify or expand it. Finally it should be mentioned that, although the results presented here are in the context of a new disease in medical sciences, these are useful for any field that requires a experimental technique with a control group.