论文标题
长期预测财务时间序列的时空自适应神经网络
Spatiotemporal Adaptive Neural Network for Long-term Forecasting of Financial Time Series
论文作者
论文摘要
社交环境中的最佳决策通常基于时间序列(TS)数据的预测。最近,已经引入了用于TS预测的几种使用深神经网络(DNN)的方法,例如复发性神经网络(RNN),并显示出令人鼓舞的结果。但是,这些方法的适用性正在质疑缺乏优质培训数据以及TS来预测表现出复杂行为的TS设置。这种设置的例子包括财务TS预测,在这些预测中,众所周知,在这些预测中产生准确和一致的长期预测是困难的。在这项工作中,我们研究了是否可以通过学习该系列的联合表示,而不是从原始的时间序列表示中计算预测,从而可以使用基于DNN的模型来预测这些TS。为此,我们利用动态因子图(DFG)来构建多元自回归模型。我们研究了依赖DFG框架的RNN的共同局限性,并提出了一种新型的基于可变的注意机制(ACTM)来解决它。使用ACTM,随着时间的推移,可以改变TS模型的自回归顺序,并建模一组概率分布集,而不是以前的方法。使用这种机制,我们为多元TS预测提出了一种自我监督的DNN体系结构,以学习并利用它们之间的关系。我们在两个涵盖19年投资基金活动的数据集上测试了我们的模型。我们的实验结果表明,在预测21天的价格轨迹时,提出的方法显着优于典型的基于DNN的统计模型。我们指出,如何提高预测准确性,并知道要使用哪种预报器可以改善自主交易策略的过剩回报。
Optimal decision-making in social settings is often based on forecasts from time series (TS) data. Recently, several approaches using deep neural networks (DNNs) such as recurrent neural networks (RNNs) have been introduced for TS forecasting and have shown promising results. However, the applicability of these approaches is being questioned for TS settings where there is a lack of quality training data and where the TS to forecast exhibit complex behaviors. Examples of such settings include financial TS forecasting, where producing accurate and consistent long-term forecasts is notoriously difficult. In this work, we investigate whether DNN-based models can be used to forecast these TS conjointly by learning a joint representation of the series instead of computing the forecast from the raw time-series representations. To this end, we make use of the dynamic factor graph (DFG) to build a multivariate autoregressive model. We investigate a common limitation of RNNs that rely on the DFG framework and propose a novel variable-length attention-based mechanism (ACTM) to address it. With ACTM, it is possible to vary the autoregressive order of a TS model over time and model a larger set of probability distributions than with previous approaches. Using this mechanism, we propose a self-supervised DNN architecture for multivariate TS forecasting that learns and takes advantage of the relationships between them. We test our model on two datasets covering 19 years of investment fund activities. Our experimental results show that the proposed approach significantly outperforms typical DNN-based and statistical models at forecasting the 21-day price trajectory. We point out how improving forecasting accuracy and knowing which forecaster to use can improve the excess return of autonomous trading strategies.