论文标题
建模巴西的共同-19的早期演变：易感性毫不持久的（SIQR）模型的结果
Modeling the early evolution of the COVID-19 in Brazil: results from a Susceptible-Infectious-Quarantined-Recovered (SIQR) model
论文作者
论文摘要
严重的急性呼吸综合症冠状病毒2（SARS-COV2或SIMST COVID-19）的世界进化导致世界卫生组织宣布这是大流行病。该疾病于2019年12月出现在中国，它在世界各地，特别是在意大利和西班牙等欧洲国家中迅速传播。 2月26日记录了巴西的第一个报道案件，此后的案件数量迅速。为了减缓该国疾病的初始生长，确认阳性病例被隔离为不传播疾病。为了更好地了解巴西的Covid-19的早期演变，我们应用了一个易感性的，保证的（SIQR）模型（SIQR）模型，用于从2020年2月26日至2020年3月25日获得的巴西卫生部的数据分析，基于分析和数字结果，以及基本的数据，基于数据，基于数据= 5 $估计。此外，我们估计，与以前的研究一致，在流行病开始时，比率身份不明的传染病患者和确认案件的比率约为10美元。我们还估计，流行时间的两倍时间为$ 2.72美元。
The world evolution of the Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-Cov2 or simply COVID-19) led the World Health Organization to declare it a pandemic. The disease appeared in China in December 2019, and it has spread fast around the world, specially in european countries like Italy and Spain. The first reported case in Brazil was recorded in February 26, and after that the number of cases growed fast. In order to slow down the initial growth of the disease through the country, confirmed positive cases were isolated to not transmit the disease. To better understand the early evolution of COVID-19 in Brazil, we apply a Susceptible-Infectious-Quarantined-Recovered (SIQR) model to the analysis of data from the Brazilian Department of Health, obtained from February 26, 2020 through March 25, 2020. Based on analyical and numerical results, as well on the data, the basic reproduction number is estimated to $R_{0}=5.25$. In addition, we estimate that the ratio unidentified infectious individuals and confirmed cases at the beginning of the epidemic is about $10$, in agreement with previous studies. We also estimated the epidemic doubling time to be $2.72$ days.
