论文标题
为COVID-19爆发的恢复案件和死亡概率进行建模
Modelling Recovered Cases and Death Probabilities for the COVID-19 Outbreak
论文作者
论文摘要
从3月23日开始，约翰·霍普金斯大学与世卫组织合作维护的标准存储库中丢失了COVID-19案件的数据。但是，由于与恢复患者有关的数据对于建模Covid-19爆发非常重要，因此提供和测试了一种估算丢失数据的方法。作为副产品，它会产生估计确认后$ k $ $ K $的概率，或在$ d $ $天后生存的概率。
From March 23rd, the data for the recovered cases of COVID-19 are missing from the standard repository maintained by the Johns Hopkins University in collaboration with the WHO. But since data concerning recovered patients are extremely important for modelling the COVID-19 outbreak, a method for estimating the missing data is provided and tested. As a byproduct, it produces estimates for the probabilities to die $k$ days after confirmation, or to survive after $d$ days.
