论文标题
基于功率法缩放指数
Short-term predictions of country-specific Covid-19 infection rates based on power law scaling exponents
论文作者
论文摘要
电晕病毒（Covid-19）感染的数量在全球范围内增加。为了创建短期预测以为全球大流行的程度做准备，我们分析了来自前25名国家的感染数据。结果表明，所有特定国家特定的感染率遵循了权力法的增长行为，并计算了每个国家 /地区的缩放指数。我们发现了两种不同的增长模式：从一开始就以3-5的中等缩放指数从一开始，或者要么以8-11的巨大缩放指数增长，要么以中等的缩放指数为3-5。在美国，我们甚至发现指数为16.59。通过数据分析，我们确认，制定严格的锁定措施，并结合了人口的强烈依从性，是使增长率降低的有效手段。尽管许多国家已经采取了措施，但到目前为止，只有三个国家（丹麦，挪威和韩国），这种锁定导致增长率大大降低。在丹麦的情况下，我们计算了缩放指数的减少，从6.82移至1.47。
The number of corona virus (COVID-19) infections grows worldwide. In order to create short term predictions to prepare for the extent of the global pandemic we analyze infection data from the top 25 affected countries. It is shown that all country-specific infection rates follow a power law growth behavior and the scaling exponents per country are calculated. We find two different growth patterns: either steady power law growth from the very beginning with moderate scaling exponents of 3-5 or explosive power law growth with dramatic scaling exponents of 8-11. In the case of the USA we even find an exponent of 16.59. By means of data analysis we confirm that instituting strict measures of lock-downs combined with a strong adherence by the population are effective means to bring the growth rates down. While many countries have instituted measures there are only three countries (Denmark, Norway, and South Korea) so far where such lock-downs led to a significant reduction of the growth rate. In the case of Denmark we calculate the reduction of the scaling exponents to move from 6.82 to 1.47.
