论文标题
探索COVID-19遏制政策对犯罪的影响：洛杉矶短期后果的经验分析
Exploring the Effects of COVID-19 Containment Policies on Crime: An Empirical Analysis of the Short-term Aftermath in Los Angeles
论文作者
论文摘要
这项工作调查了COVID-19遏制政策是否对洛杉矶的犯罪趋势产生直接影响。该分析是使用贝叶斯结构性时间表进行的，并专注于九种犯罪类别，并按整体犯罪计数进行，每天对2017年1月1日至2020年3月28日进行监控。我们专注于两个介绍后的时间窗口 - 从3月4日至3月4日至3月4日至3月4日至2020年3月4日至2020年3月28日 - 以动态评估轻度和严格的政治效果。在洛杉矶，整体犯罪以及抢劫，入店行窃，盗窃和炮台都大大减少。对于使用致命武器，亲密伴侣袭击和凶杀案的车辆盗窃，盗窃，袭击，尚未发现明显的影响。结果表明，在进行干预措施后的头几周，社会疏远对工具性和严重犯罪的影响更大。还讨论了政策的影响。
This work investigates whether and how COVID-19 containment policies had an immediate impact on crime trends in Los Angeles. The analysis is conducted using Bayesian structural time-series and focuses on nine crime categories and on the overall crime count, daily monitored from January 1st 2017 to March 28th 2020. We concentrate on two post-intervention time windows - from March 4th to March 16th and from March 4th to March 28th 2020 - to dynamically assess the short-term effects of mild and strict policies. In Los Angeles, overall crime has significantly decreased, as well as robbery, shoplifting, theft, and battery. No significant effect has been detected for vehicle theft, burglary, assault with a deadly weapon, intimate partner assault, and homicide. Results suggest that, in the first weeks after the interventions are put in place, social distancing impacts more directly on instrumental and less serious crimes. Policy implications are also discussed.
