论文标题
与自适应SEIRD模型在意大利传播的Covid-19的初步分析
Preliminary analysis of COVID-19 spread in Italy with an adaptive SEIRD model
论文作者
论文摘要
在本文中，我们提出了一种易感性感染的公认的已死亡（SEIRD）差异模型，以使用来自2020年2月24日的意大利Protezione civile的数据在意大利的某些地区进行分析和预测，从2020年2月24日开始。由于从2020年3月8日开始，意大利政府在不同时期实施了几项限制措施，因此我们通过引入依赖时间的传输率来改进SEIRD。在数值结果中，我们报告了由Covid-19爆发（Lombardia，Veneto和Emilia Romagna）影响的三个意大利地区的最大感染扩散。一旦有更多数据可用，这种方法将连续扩展到其他意大利地区。
In this paper we propose a Susceptible-Infected-Exposed-Recovered-Dead (SEIRD) differential model for the analysis and forecast of the COVID-19 spread in some regions of Italy, using the data from the Italian Protezione Civile from February 24th 2020. In this study investigate an adaptation of the model. Since several restricting measures have been imposed by the Italian government at different times, starting from March 8th 2020, we propose a modification of SEIRD by introducing a time dependent transmitting rate. In the numerical results we report the maximum infection spread for the three Italian regions firstly affected by the COVID-19 outbreak(Lombardia, Veneto and Emilia Romagna). This approach will be successively extended to other Italian regions, as soon as more data will be available.
