论文标题
神经网络辅助隔离控制模型模型的估计中国武汉的共同扩散
Neural Network aided quarantine control model estimation of COVID spread in Wuhan, China
论文作者
论文摘要
从2020年1月24日开始，在公共卫生历史上被描述为前所未有的举动，中国在武汉（武汉）施加了隔离和隔离限制，这是一个超过1000万人的城市。这提出了一个问题：除了科学用作医学工具外，大众隔离和隔离是有效的社会工具吗？为了解决这个问题，使用机器学习的流行病学模型驱动的方法增强，我们表明，武汉实施的隔离和隔离措施降低了Covid-19的有效复制数字R（t）从r（t）> 1扩散到Quartantine Control Insure of Quartantine Control Insure in Ceramin，wuhan，wuhan，wuhan，wuhan，wuhan，wuhan eartiment> r（t）> 1。这最终导致了武汉感染病例计数的停滞阶段。我们的结果表明，武汉实施的严格公共卫生政策可能在停止感染的传播方面发挥了至关重要的作用，应在其他受影响的国家（如韩国，意大利和伊朗）实施此类措施，以减少疾病的传播。最后，我们的预测结果预测在2020年3月底在武汉实施的隔离控制措施停滞不前；这将导致随后在r（t）<1处的有效繁殖数停滞。我们警告说，武汉的隔离措施立即放松可能导致感染扩散的复发，并随后有效繁殖数量增加到R（t）> 1。因此，在足够的时间之后放松隔离措施可能是明智的，在此期间，回收了最大隔离/隔离个体。
In a move described as unprecedented in public health history, starting 24 January 2020, China imposed quarantine and isolation restrictions in Wuhan, a city of more than 10 million people. This raised the question: is mass quarantine and isolation effective as a social tool in addition to its scientific use as a medical tool? In an effort to address this question, using a epidemiological model driven approach augmented by machine learning, we show that the quarantine and isolation measures implemented in Wuhan brought down the effective reproduction number R(t) of the CoVID-19 spread from R(t) > 1 to R(t) <1 within a month after the imposition of quarantine control measures in Wuhan, China. This ultimately resulted in a stagnation phase in the infected case count in Wuhan. Our results indicate that the strict public health policies implemented in Wuhan may have played a crucial role in halting down the spread of infection and such measures should potentially be implemented in other highly affected countries such as South Korea, Italy and Iran to curtail spread of the disease. Finally, our forecasting results predict a stagnation in the quarantine control measures implemented in Wuhan towards the end of March 2020; this would lead to a subsequent stagnation in the effective reproduction number at R(t) <1. We warn that immediate relaxation of the quarantine measures in Wuhan may lead to a relapse in the infection spread and a subsequent increase in the effective reproduction number to R(t) >1. Thus, it may be wise to relax quarantine measures after sufficient time has elapsed, during which maximum of the quarantined/isolated individuals are recovered.
