论文标题
从确定随机贡献到确定足球比赛的最佳预测
From identification of random contributions to determination of the optimum forecast of a soccer match
论文作者
论文摘要
从应用的，也是从理论角度来看，对体育事件的预测引起了广泛的兴趣。在这项工作中，对于德国足球德甲联赛的示例就解决了问题，理论上如何对比赛的目标差异进行最佳预测。这涉及对比赛中的随机贡献进行仔细的分析及其与各个团队的优势产生的信息贡献。一个重要的方面是考虑团队实力的时间依赖性，事实证明，在一个赛季的过程中，主要围绕特定团队的价值波动。必须区分两种类型的时间依赖性属性，一种在不同的比赛周之间不相关，另一种是在相关的情况下通过适当的相关分析来访问的。对于某些可以用来估计团队强度的性能指标，将相应预测的质量与理论最佳级进行了比较。了解内容丰富的贡献使人们得出结论，进攻球队的实力比防守球队的最终成功更为重要。
The forecasting of sports events is of broad interest from the applied but also from the theoretical perspective. In this work the question is addressed for the example of the German soccer Bundesliga how a theoretically optimum forecast of the goal difference of a match can be characterized. This involves a careful analysis of the random contributions in a match and its disentanglement from the informative contributions, resulting from the individual team strengths. An important aspect is the consideration of the time dependence of the team strength which turns out to mainly fluctuate around a team-specific value during the course of a season. Two types of time-dependent properties have to be distinguished, one being uncorrelated between different match-days, the other being correlated and thus accessible by an appropriate correlation analysis. For some performance indicators, which may be used to estimate the team strength, the quality of the respective forecast is compared to the theoretical optimum. Knowledge of the informative contribution allows one to conclude that the offensive team strength is more important than the defensive team strength for the final success.
