论文标题
对不同国家的共同19感染的扩散的比较分析
Comparative analysis of the diffusion of Covid-19 infection in different countries
论文作者
论文摘要
在3月11日，世界卫生组织在中国境外突然蔓延，将持续的爆发视为大流行。在这个阶段，至关重要的是要了解目前在感染传播中落后于感染较早传播的国家的国家应该落后于什么。这项工作的选择是偏爱及时性而不是全面性。通过采用纯粹的经验方法，我们将根据不同国家的不同功能行为的不同阶段限制自己，并根据其不同的功能行为来确定不同的阶段，并进行比较分析。对注册案例曲线的比较分析突出了显着的相似性，尤其是在西方国家，以及一些较小但至关重要的差异。我们强调了及时性如何在很大程度上减少各个国家暴发的规模，最终限制了最终的死亡人数。我们的数据表明，不幸的是，基于爆发爆发较早的国家的经验，西方政府并未表明能够预测其决定。
The sudden spread of Covid-19 outside China has pushed on March 11 the World Health Organization to acknowledge the ongoing outbreak as a pandemic. It is crucial in this phase to understand what should countries which presently lag behind in the spread of the infection learn from countries where the infection spread earlier. The choice of this work is to prefer timeliness to comprehensiveness. By adopting a purely empirical approach, we will limit ourselves to identifying different phases in the plots of different countries, based on their different functional behaviour, and to make a comparative analysis. The comparative analysis of the registered cases curves highlights remarkable similarities, especially among Western countries, together with some minor but crucial differences. We highlight how timeliness can largely reduce the size of the individual national outbreaks, ultimately limiting the final death toll. Our data suggest that Western governments have not unfortunately shown the capability to anticipate their decisions, based on the experience of countries hit earlier by the outbreak.
