论文标题

集体风险困境的时间不确定性鼓励团体往复和两极分化

Timing uncertainty in collective risk dilemmas encourages group reciprocation and polarization

论文作者

Domingos, Elias Fernández, Grujić, Jelena, Burguillo, Juan C., Kirchsteiger, Georg, Santos, Francisco C., Lenaerts, Tom

论文摘要

人类的社会困境通常是由涉及不确定目标和回报的行动来塑造的,而这些目标和回报只会在将来实现。气候作用,自愿疫苗接种和其他前瞻性选择是这种环境的最高示例。在这种情况下,以及在许多其他社会困境中,不确定性可能会产生非平凡的影响。尽管对集体目标及其影响的不确定性表明对群体的协调和成功产生了负面影响,但没有关于时间不确定性的信息,即,需要达到目标的不确定性如何影响结果以及决策。在这里,我们通过一个集体困境来表明,参与者需要避免在集体损失风险下的转化点,时间不确定性不仅会提示早期慷慨,而且还会提示参与者的总贡献比没有不确定性时更加不正常的贡献。分析参与者行为在不确定性下揭示了相互策略的增加,其中贡献是基于其他参与者的先前捐款的条件,这是众所周知的tit tat策略的小组类似物。尽管较大的时机不确定性似乎会降低集体成功,但成功收集所需数量的小组表现出强大的互惠协调。该结论得到了一个游戏理论模型的支持,该模型检查了时间不确定性的情况下的行为的主导地位。通常,时间不确定性给未来带来了阴影,导致参与者提早做出反应,鼓励相互行为和不平等的贡献。

Human social dilemmas are often shaped by actions involving uncertain goals and returns that may only be achieved in the future. Climate action, voluntary vaccination and other prospective choices stand as paramount examples of this setting. In this context, as well as in many other social dilemmas, uncertainty may produce non-trivial effects. Whereas uncertainty about collective targets and their impact were shown to negatively affect group coordination and success, no information is available about timing uncertainty, i.e. how uncertainty about when the target needs to be reached affects the outcome as well as the decision-making. Here we show experimentally, through a collective dilemma wherein groups of participants need to avoid a tipping point under the risk of collective loss, that timing uncertainty prompts not only early generosity but also polarized contributions, in which participants' total contributions are distributed more unfairly than when there is no uncertainty. Analyzing participant behavior reveals, under uncertainty, an increase in reciprocal strategies wherein contributions are conditional on the previous donations of the other participants, a group analogue of the well-known Tit-for-Tat strategy. Although large timing uncertainty appears to reduce collective success, groups that successfully collect the required amount show strong reciprocal coordination. This conclusion is supported by a game theoretic model examining the dominance of behaviors in case of timing uncertainty. In general, timing uncertainty casts a shadow on the future that leads participants to respond early, encouraging reciprocal behaviors, and unequal contributions.

扫码加入交流群

加入微信交流群

微信交流群二维码

扫码加入学术交流群,获取更多资源